HCA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCA - HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$402.59
6.80 (1.72%)
▲
5d:
+5.34%
30d:
+2.38%
90d:
-7.33%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 23, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$619.80
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$384.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCA is currently trading at $402.59, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $375.56 to $407.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.5) compared to its historical average (14.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $366.51, while resistance sits at $421.31.
Market Sentiment: HCA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $452.81 (+12.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $366.51, while resistance sits at $421.31.
Market Sentiment: HCA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $452.81 (+12.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$375.56 -
$407.40
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($452.81)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$375.56 -
$407.40
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$366.51
Resistance Level
$421.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.51
Wall Street Target
$452.81
(+12.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 14.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$386.49
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$371.03
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$356.19
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$401.45
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.9%)
$860.78
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 8.9%)
$519.47
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 8.9%)
$441.55
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.93
Bull Case
$484.29
(+20%)
Analyst growth 11.2%, PE expands to 15.1
Base Case
$440.26
(+9%)
Market implied 11.2%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$269.14
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 14.1
Stabilization Target:
$453.75
(+12.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 7:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Michael R Mcalevey
SELL
1694 shares
2026-02-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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