HCA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCA - HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$390.74
-15.85 (-3.90%)
▼
5d:
-6.31%
30d:
+4.66%
90d:
-21.14%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
10d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HCA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$661.20
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$410.56
4.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCA is currently trading at $390.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $374.25 to $405.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.3) compared to its historical average (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $384.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $493.52 (+21.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $384.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $493.52 (+21.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$374.25 -
$405.71
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HCA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($493.52)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$374.25 -
$405.71
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$384.00
Resistance Level
$429.54
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.29
Wall Street Target
$493.52
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 14.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$386.26
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$366.95
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$348.60
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$408.34
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.6%)
$947.32
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 9.6%)
$534.69
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 9.6%)
$454.49
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.92
Bull Case
$514.54
(+27%)
Analyst growth 14.4%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$467.76
(+15%)
Market implied 14.4%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$278.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$476.27
(+17.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Michael R Mcalevey
SELL
1694 shares
2026-02-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCA price and gamma walls.
