HCA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCA - HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$389.13
12.13 (3.22%)
▲
5d:
-0.22%
30d:
-0.88%
90d:
-21.32%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
30d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$674.17
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$418.61
7.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCA is currently trading at $389.12, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $368.26 to $404.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $399.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $503.57 (+33.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $399.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $503.57 (+33.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$368.26 -
$404.97
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 33.6% below Wall St target ($503.57)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$368.26 -
$404.97
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$356.89
Resistance Level
$399.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.39
Wall Street Target
$503.57
(+33.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 14.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$347.21
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$319.78
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$294.52
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→15)
$377.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.8%)
$955.42
(+153%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 9.8%)
$499.51
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 9.8%)
$424.58
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.04
Bull Case
$470.49
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.0%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$427.72
(+14%)
Market implied 14.0%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$255.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$483.37
(+28.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Michael R Mcalevey
SELL
1694 shares
2026-02-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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