HD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HD - Home Depot, Inc.
$324.45
-2.17 (-0.66%)
▼
5d:
-1.63%
30d:
+3.4%
90d:
-1.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$415.54
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$258.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HD is currently trading at $324.45, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $307.07 to $327.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.6) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $322.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $370.34 (+14.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $322.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $370.34 (+14.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$307.07 -
$327.07
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($370.34)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$307.07 -
$327.07
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$307.07
Resistance Level
$322.89
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.56
Wall Street Target
$370.34
(+14.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$318.61
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$312.87
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$307.24
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$324.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.8%)
$366.64
(+13%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.6, Growth: 3.8%)
$362.86
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.3, Growth: 3.8%)
$308.43
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.08
Bull Case
$384.09
(+18%)
Analyst growth 6.9%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$349.18
(+8%)
Market implied 6.9%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$222.11
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.6 to 22.8
Stabilization Target:
$343.19
(+5.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 4:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
8
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lloyd Doggett
BUY
2026-03-26
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
Richard McCormick
BUY
2026-03-19
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