FND Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$57.08
-0.49 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
+3.01%
30d:
-3.32%
90d:
+12.87%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FND shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FND shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.43
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FND is currently trading at $57.08, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.50 to $58.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.9) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 53.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $51.92, while resistance sits at $60.27.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $51.92, while resistance sits at $60.27.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$54.50 -
$58.34
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.50 -
$58.34
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.92
Resistance Level
$60.27
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.91
Wall Street Target
$58.14
(+1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
53.4%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.9 vs 26.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.85
(0%)
2-Year Target
$56.62
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$56.40
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→26)
$57.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.9, Growth: 11.8%)
$79.74
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 11.8%)
$63.80
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 11.8%)
$54.23
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.82
Bull Case
$72.81
(+27%)
Analyst growth 19.7%, PE expands to 33.4
Base Case
$66.19
(+15%)
Market implied 19.7%, PE stable at 30.4
Bear Case
$37.60
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.9 to 26.2
Stabilization Target:
$57.72
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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