HP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HP - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.
$38.44
-0.92 (-2.34%)
▼
5d:
-0.13%
30d:
-5.44%
90d:
+12.0%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.10
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HP is currently trading at $38.44, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.31 to $40.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 29.2) compared to its historical average (35.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.05, while resistance sits at $41.58.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (27th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.05, while resistance sits at $41.58.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (27th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$38.31 -
$40.67
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
27th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 27th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.31 -
$40.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.49
(6.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.05
Resistance Level
$41.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.21
Wall Street Target
$40.80
(+6.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.8%
Profit Margin
-9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.2 vs 35.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.17
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$34.04
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$32.03
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→35)
$38.49
(+0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.2 to 35.1
Stabilization Target:
$46.19
(+20.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 10:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Cara M Hair
SELL
58771 shares
2026-03-19
Hans Helmerich
SELL
75000 shares
2025-12-19
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Advanced HP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HP price and gamma walls.
