HSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSY - The Hershey Company
$179.11
2.43 (1.38%)
▲
5d:
+3.75%
30d:
-9.46%
90d:
-14.88%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.4% annual earnings decline despite 94% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.4% annual earnings decline despite 94% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$376.61
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$233.84
23.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSY is currently trading at $179.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $176.70 to $191.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.0) compared to its historical average (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 93.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $173.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $216.23 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $173.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $216.23 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$176.70 -
$191.74
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($216.23)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$176.70 -
$191.74
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$173.75
Resistance Level
$200.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.02
Wall Street Target
$216.23
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
93.6%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 22.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$165.86
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$153.58
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$142.22
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→23)
$179.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.8%)
$353.74
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 17.8%)
$292.71
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 17.8%)
$248.80
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.37
Bull Case
$359.68
(+101%)
Analyst growth 85.1%, PE expands to 36.2
Base Case
$326.98
(+83%)
Market implied 85.1%, PE stable at 32.9
Bear Case
$120.14
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.0 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$225.60
(+26.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 27, 2026 5:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-20
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-18
Jason Reiman
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-24
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