MO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MO - Altria Group, Inc.
$71.61
2.10 (3.02%)
▲
5d:
+2.9%
30d:
-2.85%
90d:
+11.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.30
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MO is currently trading at $71.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.75 to $73.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$69.75 -
$73.10
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.36)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.75 -
$73.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.23
Resistance Level
$73.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.19
Wall Street Target
$70.36
(-1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
106.3%
Profit Margin
39.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.33
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$75.09
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$76.89
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$71.90
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.4%)
$141.56
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 3.4%)
$79.24
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 3.4%)
$67.35
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.79
Bull Case
$93.76
(+31%)
Analyst growth 22.6%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$85.23
(+19%)
Market implied 22.6%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$47.27
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles N Whitaker
SELL
27908 shares
2026-03-05
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