MO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MO - Altria Group, Inc.
$70.30
1.06 (1.53%)
▲
5d:
-2.51%
30d:
-4.24%
90d:
+3.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.59
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MO is currently trading at $70.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.83 to $73.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$68.83 -
$73.48
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.36)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.83 -
$73.48
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.23
Resistance Level
$74.39
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.97
Wall Street Target
$70.36
(+0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
106.3%
Profit Margin
39.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.71
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$73.14
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$74.60
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$70.43
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 3.4%)
$142.40
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 3.4%)
$77.79
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 3.4%)
$66.12
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.79
Bull Case
$97.16
(+35%)
Analyst growth 22.5%, PE expands to 16.6
Base Case
$88.33
(+23%)
Market implied 22.5%, PE stable at 15.1
Bear Case
$49.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles N Whitaker
SELL
27908 shares
2026-03-05
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