MO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MO - Altria Group, Inc.
$70.16
-1.71 (-2.38%)
▼
5d:
-3.84%
30d:
-1.75%
90d:
+5.01%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
14d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MO is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MO is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$81.05
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MO is currently trading at $70.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.30 to $72.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$70.30 -
$72.99
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.64)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.30 -
$72.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.23
Resistance Level
$73.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.94
Wall Street Target
$70.64
(+0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
106.3%
Profit Margin
39.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.14
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$72.14
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$73.15
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$70.47
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.4%)
$141.51
(+102%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 3.4%)
$77.56
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 3.4%)
$65.93
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.79
Bull Case
$96.89
(+38%)
Analyst growth 22.7%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$88.08
(+26%)
Market implied 22.7%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$48.82
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 3:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles N Whitaker
SELL
27908 shares
2026-03-05
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