PM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PM - Philip Morris International Inc.
$187.41
-3.41 (-1.79%)
▼
5d:
-4.22%
30d:
+2.82%
90d:
+12.64%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$245.80
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $187.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $180.50 to $193.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.4) is in line with its historical norms (19.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $187.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $187.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$180.50 -
$193.52
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($203.80)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with 10.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$180.50 -
$193.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$187.31
Resistance Level
$207.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.44
Wall Street Target
$203.80
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.5%
Profit Margin
25.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 19.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$190.60
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$193.84
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$197.13
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$187.10
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 9.4%)
$248.86
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 9.4%)
$245.38
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.4, Growth: 9.4%)
$208.57
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.29
Bull Case
$264.00
(+41%)
Analyst growth 25.8%, PE expands to 28.8
Base Case
$240.00
(+28%)
Market implied 25.8%, PE stable at 26.2
Bear Case
$129.76
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 8:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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