PM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PM - Philip Morris International Inc.
$175.95
-4.24 (-2.35%)
▼
5d:
-6.3%
30d:
-2.67%
90d:
+8.11%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
6d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$238.27
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$147.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $175.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $177.35 to $183.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.3) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $170.00, while resistance sits at $183.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $194.86 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $170.00, while resistance sits at $183.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $194.86 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$177.35 -
$183.97
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($194.86)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$177.35 -
$183.97
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$170.00
Resistance Level
$183.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.29
Wall Street Target
$194.86
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.3%
Profit Margin
26.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$175.77
(0%)
2-Year Target
$175.60
(0%)
3-Year Target
$175.42
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$175.54
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.5%)
$253.91
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 8.5%)
$224.85
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 8.5%)
$191.12
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.10
Bull Case
$256.69
(+46%)
Analyst growth 28.5%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$233.36
(+33%)
Market implied 28.5%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$123.50
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.3 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$176.07
(+0.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 3:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-03-23
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2026-03-20
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2026-02-24
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