Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$247.07
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$153.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $191.46, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $186.73 to $193.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.9) is in line with its historical norms (19.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $194.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$186.73 -
$193.96
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
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Created from the international operations of Altria in 2008, Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and reduced-risk products, including heat sticks, vapes, and oral nicotine offerings, primarily outside of the US. With the 2023 acquisition of Swedish Match, a leading manufacturer of traditional oral tobacco products and nicotine pouches primarily in the US and Scandinavia, PMI has not only diversified away from smokable products but also gained a toehold in the US to sell its Iqos heated tobacco product.
