MOH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOH - Molina Healthcare, Inc.
$194.77
-0.85 (-0.43%)
▼
5d:
-2.36%
30d:
-15.27%
90d:
+1.07%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MOH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MOH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$348.02
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$216.10
9.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOH is currently trading at $194.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $206.96 to $236.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.9) is in line with its historical norms (20.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $186.04, while resistance sits at $233.27.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $186.04, while resistance sits at $233.27.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$206.96 -
$236.30
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($209.12)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.1% growth with -5.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$206.96 -
$236.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$186.05
Resistance Level
$233.27
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.88
Wall Street Target
$209.12
(+6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 20.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$201.68
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$207.94
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$214.38
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$195.86
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: 63.1%)
$660.22
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 63.1%)
$598.26
(+206%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 63.1%)
$508.52
(+160%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 37.88 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.16
Bull Case
$236.21
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 39.8
Base Case
$195.62
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 37.9
Bear Case
$149.65
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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