NFLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$82.18
0.62 (0.76%)
▲
5d:
-4.46%
30d:
-6.9%
90d:
-17.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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4 traders called NFLX this week
80% bullish • 1 bearish
80% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NFLX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 86% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NFLX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 86% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.91
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $82.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.74 to $90.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.5) compared to its historical average (25.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 86.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.56 (+39.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.56 (+39.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$84.74 -
$90.83
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.4% below Wall St target ($114.56)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.74 -
$90.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.10
Resistance Level
$90.37
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.46
Wall Street Target
$114.56
(+39.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.4%
Profit Margin
28.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.5 vs 25.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.15
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$74.32
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$70.68
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→25)
$82.34
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 6.6%)
$101.49
(+24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.5, Growth: 6.6%)
$99.41
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.2, Growth: 6.6%)
$84.50
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$110.82
(+35%)
Analyst growth 23.5%, PE expands to 28.9
Base Case
$100.75
(+23%)
Market implied 23.5%, PE stable at 26.3
Bear Case
$55.46
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.5 to 25.0
Stabilization Target:
$95.73
(+16.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 06, 2026 5:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
28630 shares
2026-04-02
Reed Hastings
SELL
420550 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
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