TMDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
$73.98
-2.02 (-2.66%)
▼
5d:
+3.86%
30d:
-2.43%
90d:
-32.2%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
10d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMDX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMDX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$134.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.61
11.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMDX is currently trading at $73.98, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.26 to $75.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.8) compared to its historical average (33.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $68.46, while resistance sits at $78.47.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.00 (+54.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $68.46, while resistance sits at $78.47.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.00 (+54.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$69.26 -
$75.85
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.1% below Wall St target ($114.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.26 -
$75.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.46
Resistance Level
$78.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.75
Wall Street Target
$114.00
(+54.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.5%
Profit Margin
27.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.8 vs 33.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.88
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$64.12
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$59.70
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→33)
$73.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.7, Growth: 56.0%)
$249.68
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 56.0%)
$196.13
(+165%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 56.0%)
$166.71
(+125%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.37
Bull Case
$52.91
(-29%)
Analyst growth -36.7%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$48.10
(-35%)
Market implied -36.7%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$51.68
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.7 to 33.1
Stabilization Target:
$91.55
(+23.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 18, 2026 5:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Weill
SELL
3571 shares
2026-03-04
Gerardo Hernandez
SELL
7236 shares
2026-03-04
Stephanie Lovell
SELL
1193 shares
2026-03-04
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