TMDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
$71.23
-0.96 (-1.33%)
▼
5d:
+3.44%
30d:
-4.12%
90d:
-34.77%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
17d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.7/10
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1 traders called TMDX this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMDX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMDX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$148.53
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.23
22.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMDX is currently trading at $71.23, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.88 to $75.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.4) compared to its historical average (33.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.84, while resistance sits at $74.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.22 (+63.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.84, while resistance sits at $74.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.22 (+63.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$68.88 -
$75.47
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
45th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 45th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.2% below Wall St target ($116.22)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.88 -
$75.47
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.39
(11.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.84
Resistance Level
$74.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.35
Wall Street Target
$116.22
(+63.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.5%
Profit Margin
27.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.4 vs 33.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.11
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$57.70
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$51.93
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→33)
$74.07
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 59.8%)
$240.40
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 59.8%)
$224.27
(+215%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 59.8%)
$190.63
(+168%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.48
Bull Case
$54.08
(-24%)
Analyst growth -31.9%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$49.16
(-31%)
Market implied -31.9%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$49.09
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.3 to 33.3
Stabilization Target:
$101.60
(+42.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 11, 2026 3:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Weill
SELL
3571 shares
2026-03-04
Gerardo Hernandez
SELL
7236 shares
2026-03-04
Stephanie Lovell
SELL
1193 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced TMDX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMDX price and gamma walls.
