TMDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
$75.74
4.51 (6.33%)
▲
5d:
+6.33%
30d:
+1.3%
90d:
-33.56%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.7/10
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1 traders called TMDX this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMDX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMDX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.19
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.80
11.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMDX is currently trading at $75.74, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.26 to $75.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.7) compared to its historical average (33.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $77.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.22 (+53.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $77.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $116.22 (+53.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$69.26 -
$75.85
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 53.4% below Wall St target ($116.22)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.26 -
$75.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.84
Resistance Level
$77.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.68
Wall Street Target
$116.22
(+53.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.5%
Profit Margin
27.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.7 vs 33.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.36
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$65.37
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$60.73
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→33)
$75.78
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.7, Growth: 55.8%)
$255.62
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 55.8%)
$208.65
(+176%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 55.8%)
$177.35
(+134%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.37
Bull Case
$50.89
(-33%)
Analyst growth -35.0%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$46.27
(-39%)
Market implied -35.0%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$48.44
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.7 to 33.3
Stabilization Target:
$94.52
(+24.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 12:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Weill
SELL
3571 shares
2026-03-04
Gerardo Hernandez
SELL
7236 shares
2026-03-04
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1193 shares
2026-03-04
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