TMDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
$76.51
0.38 (0.50%)
▲
5d:
+5.88%
30d:
+12.76%
90d:
-24.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Accumulation
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Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMDX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMDX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.60
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.68
11.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMDX is currently trading at $76.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.71 to $76.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.7) compared to its historical average (32.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $68.80, while resistance sits at $79.28.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.60 (+43.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $68.80, while resistance sits at $79.28.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.60 (+43.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$69.71 -
$76.05
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.2% below Wall St target ($109.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.71 -
$76.05
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.80
Resistance Level
$79.28
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.68
Wall Street Target
$109.60
(+43.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.5%
Profit Margin
27.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.7 vs 32.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.46
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$66.74
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$62.34
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→33)
$76.63
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.7, Growth: 58.0%)
$258.22
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 58.0%)
$200.62
(+162%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 58.0%)
$170.53
(+123%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.37
Bull Case
$54.95
(-28%)
Analyst growth -34.4%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$49.96
(-35%)
Market implied -34.4%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$51.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.7 to 32.8
Stabilization Target:
$94.05
(+22.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Weill
SELL
3571 shares
2026-03-04
Gerardo Hernandez
SELL
7236 shares
2026-03-04
Stephanie Lovell
SELL
1193 shares
2026-03-04
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