TMDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
$94.77
3.92 (4.31%)
▲
5d:
+6.99%
30d:
+33.23%
90d:
+37.65%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TMDX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TMDX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMDX is currently trading at $94.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.82 to $88.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 39.4) compared to its historical average (32.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TMDX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TMDX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$73.82 -
$88.57
Company Quality Score
30/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TMDX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.0% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($97.30)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.3% growth with 20.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$73.82 -
$88.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.63
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.77
Resistance Level
$95.18
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.41
Wall Street Target
$97.30
(+7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-55.8%
Profit Margin
22.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.3% premium
PE vs Historical
39.4 vs 32.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$96.57
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$102.66
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$109.13
(+20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→33)
PE COMPRESSION
$91.11
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.4, Growth: 47.9%)
$293.82
(+223%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 47.9%)
$149.65
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 47.9%)
$127.20
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 23.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.00
Bull Case
$59.58
(-37%)
Analyst growth -42.4%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$54.16
(-43%)
Market implied -42.4%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$63.90
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Weill
SELL
3571 shares
2026-03-04
Gerardo Hernandez
SELL
7236 shares
2026-03-04
Stephanie Lovell
SELL
1193 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced TMDX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMDX price and gamma walls.
