TMDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
$88.58
-1.06 (-1.18%)
▼
5d:
+5.59%
30d:
+16.55%
90d:
+42.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $83.89 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: TMDX is 11.0% above its trading range ($79.81). Market expects 5.9% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: TMDX is 11.0% above its trading range ($79.81). Market expects 5.9% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMDX is currently trading at $88.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.97 to $79.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 38.9) compared to its historical average (32.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMDX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TMDX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$70.97 -
$79.81
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
17.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TMDX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.0% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($97.30)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.9% growth with 20.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.97 -
$79.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.00
Resistance Level
$90.09
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
38.88
Wall Street Target
$97.30
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-55.8%
Profit Margin
22.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
38.9 vs 32.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.93
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$100.53
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$106.46
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→33)
PE COMPRESSION
$89.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 38.9, Growth: 47.9%)
$289.91
(+223%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 47.9%)
$150.84
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 47.9%)
$128.21
(+43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 23.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.76
Bull Case
$58.69
(-34%)
Analyst growth -38.7%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$53.36
(-40%)
Market implied -38.7%, PE stable at 23.1
Bear Case
$59.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 3:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Weill
SELL
3571 shares
2026-03-04
Gerardo Hernandez
SELL
7236 shares
2026-03-04
Stephanie Lovell
SELL
1193 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced TMDX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMDX price and gamma walls.
