Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
AAPL
$348.91
🟢
AAPL IV: 27.1% — LOW (-33.2% vs 30d avg of 40.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $365 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

49d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $320 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.52 · Δ -0.17
P&L at Expiry Now $349 Target $365 $244 $349 $454
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If AAPL hits $365 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$352 (1.1%) on $-352 credit (max loss $31,648), vs +$1,609 (4.6%) for 100 shares on $34,891. Options give 0.2× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (49 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if AAPL hits $365 by Dec 18
+$352
+1.1% on $31,648 max loss
Max Profit
+$352
If the stock ≥ $320 at expiry
Max Loss
−$31,648
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$316.48
-9.29% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 49d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
16.73 / 9.17 / -31.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
💾 Log in to save 📊 My Saved Strategies

📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

AAPL Price Today Nov 15 Dec 1 Dec 18 (exp)
$279 (-20%) -$3,673 -$3,659 -$3,674 -$3,735
$297 (-15%) -$2,232 -$2,122 -$2,013 -$1,991
$314 (-10%) -$1,115 -$929 -$684 -$246
$331 (-5%) -$376 -$188 +$49 +$352
$342 (-2%) -$95 +$62 +$236 +$352
$349 (0%) ← spot +$37 +$169 +$296 +$352
$356 (+2%) +$136 +$240 +$327 +$352
$365 (+5%) ← target +$223 +$296 +$344 +$352
$384 (+10%) +$312 +$341 +$352 +$352
$401 (+15%) +$340 +$350 +$352 +$352
$419 (+20%) +$349 +$352 +$352 +$352
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.