Target Price Playground
AAPL
$348.91
🟢
AAPL IV: 27.1% — LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 40.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $375 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
49d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $348.91 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $375 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.95 · Δ 0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $375 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$3,004 (8.7%) on $34,496 risked, vs +$2,609 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $34,891. Options give 1.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (49 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $375. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $375 by Dec 18
+$3,004
+8.7% on $34,496 risked
Max Profit
+$3,004
If the stock ≥ $375 at expiry
Max Loss
−$34,496
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$344.96
-1.13% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 49d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
75.91 / 9.58 / -37.24
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Nov 15 | Dec 1 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | -$6,585 | -$6,583 | -$6,583 | -$6,583 |
| $297 (-15%) | -$4,851 | -$4,841 | -$4,839 | -$4,839 |
| $314 (-10%) | -$3,153 | -$3,111 | -$3,095 | -$3,094 |
| $331 (-5%) | -$1,554 | -$1,442 | -$1,364 | -$1,350 |
| $342 (-2%) | -$681 | -$511 | -$359 | -$303 |
| $349 (0%) ← spot | -$149 | +$61 | +$275 | +$395 |
| $356 (+2%) | +$337 | +$584 | +$861 | +$1,093 |
| $366 (+5%) | +$971 | +$1,258 | +$1,611 | +$2,140 |
| $375 (+7%) ← target | +$1,405 | +$1,708 | +$2,089 | +$3,004 |
| $384 (+10%) | +$1,766 | +$2,067 | +$2,438 | +$3,004 |
| $401 (+15%) | +$2,266 | +$2,522 | +$2,796 | +$3,004 |
| $419 (+20%) | +$2,543 | +$2,733 | +$2,901 | +$3,004 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.