Target Price Playground
AAPL
$348.91
🟢
AAPL IV: 27.1% — LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 40.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
49d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $350 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $13.25 · Δ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $390 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$2,675 (201.9%) on $1,325 risked, vs +$4,109 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $34,891. Options give 17.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (49 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $390 by Dec 18
+$2,675
+201.9% on $1,325 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$1,325
Premium paid
Break-even
$363.25
+4.11% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 49d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
56.83 / -13.22 / 50.89
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Nov 15 | Dec 1 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | -$1,310 | -$1,322 | -$1,325 | -$1,325 |
| $297 (-15%) | -$1,252 | -$1,301 | -$1,324 | -$1,325 |
| $314 (-10%) | -$1,066 | -$1,196 | -$1,298 | -$1,325 |
| $331 (-5%) | -$643 | -$870 | -$1,122 | -$1,325 |
| $342 (-2%) | -$234 | -$502 | -$832 | -$1,325 |
| $349 (0%) ← spot | +$109 | -$173 | -$527 | -$1,325 |
| $356 (+2%) | +$507 | +$224 | -$128 | -$736 |
| $366 (+5%) | +$1,202 | +$937 | +$629 | +$311 |
| $384 (+10%) | +$2,576 | +$2,372 | +$2,177 | +$2,055 |
| $390 (+12%) ← target | +$3,114 | +$2,934 | +$2,773 | +$2,675 |
| $401 (+15%) | +$4,137 | +$3,995 | +$3,880 | +$3,800 |
| $419 (+20%) | +$5,801 | +$5,700 | +$5,618 | +$5,544 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.