Target Price Playground
AAPL
$348.91
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.1% โ LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 40.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
49d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $348.91 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $390 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$4,109 (11.8%) on $34,891 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $390 by Dec 18
+$4,109
+11.8% on $34,891 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$34,891
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$348.91
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 49d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Nov 29 | Dec 29 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | -$6,978 | -$6,978 | -$6,978 |
| $297 (-15%) | -$5,234 | -$5,234 | -$5,234 |
| $314 (-10%) | -$3,489 | -$3,489 | -$3,489 |
| $331 (-5%) | -$1,745 | -$1,745 | -$1,745 |
| $342 (-2%) | -$698 | -$698 | -$698 |
| $349 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $356 (+2%) | +$698 | +$698 | +$698 |
| $366 (+5%) | +$1,745 | +$1,745 | +$1,745 |
| $384 (+10%) | +$3,489 | +$3,489 | +$3,489 |
| $390 (+12%) โ target | +$4,109 | +$4,109 | +$4,109 |
| $401 (+15%) | +$5,234 | +$5,234 | +$5,234 |
| $419 (+20%) | +$6,978 | +$6,978 | +$6,978 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.