Target Price Playground
AAPL
$348.91
🟢
AAPL IV: 27.1% — LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 40.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
49d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $348.91 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $330 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.9 · Δ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $385 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$3,019 (8.5%) on $35,481 risked, vs +$3,609 (10.3%) for 100 shares on $34,891. Options give 0.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (49 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $385 by Dec 18
+$3,019
+8.5% on $35,481 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$2,481
Put floors you at $330
Break-even
$354.81
+1.69% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 49d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
75.6 / -11.15 / 42.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Nov 15 | Dec 1 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | -$2,613 | -$2,594 | -$2,549 | -$2,481 |
| $297 (-15%) | -$2,428 | -$2,488 | -$2,523 | -$2,481 |
| $314 (-10%) | -$1,986 | -$2,142 | -$2,328 | -$2,481 |
| $331 (-5%) | -$1,192 | -$1,395 | -$1,666 | -$2,335 |
| $342 (-2%) | -$541 | -$734 | -$978 | -$1,288 |
| $349 (0%) ← spot | -$42 | -$216 | -$420 | -$590 |
| $356 (+2%) | +$502 | +$352 | +$195 | +$108 |
| $366 (+5%) | +$1,386 | +$1,276 | +$1,183 | +$1,155 |
| $385 (+10%) ← target | +$3,099 | +$3,048 | +$3,021 | +$3,019 |
| $401 (+15%) | +$4,673 | +$4,651 | +$4,644 | +$4,644 |
| $419 (+20%) | +$6,397 | +$6,389 | +$6,388 | +$6,388 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.