Target Price Playground
AAPL
$283.78
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.4% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 47.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $320 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
55d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $285 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.88 ยท ฮ 0.51
SHORT CALL ยท $305 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.3 ยท ฮ 0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $320 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$1,142 (133.1%) on $858 risked, vs +$3,622 (12.8%) for 100 shares on $28,378. Options give 10.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (55 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $320. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $320 by Aug 21
+$1,142
+133.1% on $858 risked
Max Profit
+$1,142
If the stock โฅ $305 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$858
Net debit
Break-even
$293.58
+3.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 55d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
25.3 / -3.59 / 12.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 15 | Aug 2 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $227 (-20%) | -$841 | -$854 | -$858 | -$858 |
| $241 (-15%) | -$792 | -$832 | -$856 | -$858 |
| $255 (-10%) | -$670 | -$747 | -$829 | -$858 |
| $270 (-5%) | -$446 | -$537 | -$683 | -$858 |
| $278 (-2%) | -$266 | -$341 | -$483 | -$858 |
| $284 (0%) โ spot | -$133 | -$187 | -$297 | -$858 |
| $289 (+2%) | +$7 | -$21 | -$79 | -$412 |
| $298 (+5%) | +$217 | +$233 | +$266 | +$439 |
| $312 (+10%) | +$537 | +$612 | +$751 | +$1,142 |
| $320 (+13%) โ target | +$683 | +$773 | +$923 | +$1,142 |
| $326 (+15%) | +$783 | +$876 | +$1,014 | +$1,142 |
| $341 (+20%) | +$946 | +$1,025 | +$1,109 | +$1,142 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.