Target Price Playground
AAPL
$283.78
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.4% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 47.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $305 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
55d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $283.78 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $305 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.3 ยท ฮ 0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $305 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$2,652 (9.5%) on $27,848 risked, vs +$2,122 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $28,378. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (55 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $305. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $305 by Aug 21
+$2,652
+9.5% on $27,848 risked
Max Profit
+$2,652
If the stock โฅ $305 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$27,848
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$278.48
-1.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 55d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
74.51 / 9.08 / -31.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 15 | Aug 2 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $227 (-20%) | -$5,149 | -$5,146 | -$5,146 | -$5,146 |
| $241 (-15%) | -$3,744 | -$3,730 | -$3,727 | -$3,727 |
| $255 (-10%) | -$2,378 | -$2,331 | -$2,309 | -$2,308 |
| $270 (-5%) | -$1,104 | -$991 | -$908 | -$889 |
| $278 (-2%) | -$413 | -$251 | -$101 | -$38 |
| $284 (0%) โ spot | +$9 | +$202 | +$405 | +$530 |
| $289 (+2%) | +$394 | +$617 | +$871 | +$1,098 |
| $298 (+5%) | +$898 | +$1,153 | +$1,467 | +$1,949 |
| $305 (+7%) โ target | +$1,247 | +$1,514 | +$1,850 | +$2,652 |
| $312 (+10%) | +$1,542 | +$1,808 | +$2,137 | +$2,652 |
| $326 (+15%) | +$1,960 | +$2,193 | +$2,448 | +$2,652 |
| $341 (+20%) | +$2,206 | +$2,386 | +$2,551 | +$2,652 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.