Target Price Playground
AAPL
$283.78
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.4% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 47.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $320 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
55d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $285 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.88 ยท ฮ 0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $320 by Aug 21: the long call returns +$2,112 (152.2%) on $1,388 risked, vs +$3,622 (12.8%) for 100 shares on $28,378. Options give 11.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (55 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $320. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $320 by Aug 21
+$2,112
+152.2% on $1,388 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,388
Premium paid
Break-even
$298.88
+5.32% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 55d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
50.8 / -12.68 / 43.89
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 15 | Aug 2 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $227 (-20%) | -$1,368 | -$1,384 | -$1,388 | -$1,388 |
| $241 (-15%) | -$1,305 | -$1,359 | -$1,386 | -$1,388 |
| $255 (-10%) | -$1,129 | -$1,254 | -$1,357 | -$1,388 |
| $270 (-5%) | -$761 | -$965 | -$1,195 | -$1,388 |
| $278 (-2%) | -$421 | -$658 | -$950 | -$1,388 |
| $284 (0%) โ spot | -$141 | -$389 | -$702 | -$1,388 |
| $289 (+2%) | +$181 | -$69 | -$382 | -$942 |
| $298 (+5%) | +$738 | +$500 | +$219 | -$91 |
| $312 (+10%) | +$1,833 | +$1,642 | +$1,452 | +$1,328 |
| $320 (+13%) โ target | +$2,507 | +$2,345 | +$2,201 | +$2,112 |
| $326 (+15%) | +$3,079 | +$2,940 | +$2,823 | +$2,747 |
| $341 (+20%) | +$4,416 | +$4,315 | +$4,234 | +$4,166 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.