Target Price Playground
AAPL
$283.78
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-42.7% vs 30d avg of 47.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
55d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $285 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.88 ยท ฮ 0.51
LONG PUT ยท $285 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.25 ยท ฮ -0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $325 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns +$1,387 (53.1%) on $2,613 risked, vs +$4,122 (14.5%) for 100 shares on $28,378. Options give 3.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (55 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $325 by Aug 21
+$1,387
+53.1% on $2,613 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,613
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$258.87
-8.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
18%
IV-implied, 55d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
0.78 / -22.39 / 87.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jul 15 | Aug 2 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $227 (-20%) | +$3,032 | +$3,063 | +$3,118 | +$3,185 |
| $241 (-15%) | +$1,740 | +$1,695 | +$1,704 | +$1,766 |
| $255 (-10%) | +$672 | +$485 | +$342 | +$347 |
| $270 (-5%) | -$11 | -$356 | -$752 | -$1,072 |
| $278 (-2%) | -$182 | -$593 | -$1,113 | -$1,923 |
| $284 (0%) โ spot | -$190 | -$624 | -$1,185 | -$2,491 |
| $289 (+2%) | -$114 | -$552 | -$1,114 | -$2,167 |
| $298 (+5%) | +$149 | -$265 | -$763 | -$1,316 |
| $312 (+10%) | +$920 | +$600 | +$284 | +$103 |
| $325 (+15%) โ target | +$1,882 | +$1,657 | +$1,477 | +$1,387 |
| $341 (+20%) | +$3,248 | +$3,108 | +$3,010 | +$2,941 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.