Target Price Playground
AAPL
$337.02
๐ข
AAPL IV: 25.8% โ LOW
(-38.8% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $370 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
57d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $337.02 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $320 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.67 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $370 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$2,631 (7.7%) on $34,369 risked, vs +$3,298 (9.8%) for 100 shares on $33,702. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (57 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $370 by Nov 20
+$2,631
+7.7% on $34,369 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,369
Put floors you at $320
Break-even
$343.69
+1.98% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 57d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
71.92 / -9.66 / 44.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 13 | Nov 1 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | -$2,513 | -$2,493 | -$2,442 | -$2,369 |
| $286 (-15%) | -$2,317 | -$2,380 | -$2,416 | -$2,369 |
| $303 (-10%) | -$1,880 | -$2,040 | -$2,230 | -$2,369 |
| $320 (-5%) | -$1,123 | -$1,333 | -$1,618 | -$2,352 |
| $330 (-2%) | -$509 | -$715 | -$982 | -$1,341 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | -$40 | -$230 | -$461 | -$667 |
| $344 (+2%) | +$471 | +$303 | +$118 | +$7 |
| $354 (+5%) | +$1,304 | +$1,175 | +$1,057 | +$1,018 |
| $370 (+10%) โ target | +$2,753 | +$2,681 | +$2,636 | +$2,631 |
| $388 (+15%) | +$4,432 | +$4,400 | +$4,388 | +$4,388 |
| $404 (+20%) | +$6,088 | +$6,076 | +$6,073 | +$6,073 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.