Target Price Playground
AAPL
$348.91
🟢
AAPL IV: 27.1% — LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 40.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $305 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
49d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $350 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $12.73 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $320 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.52 · Δ -0.17
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $305 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$2,079 (225.7%) on $921 risked, vs $-4,391 (-12.6%) for 100 shares on $34,891. Options give 17.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (49 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $305. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $305 by Dec 18
+$2,079
+225.7% on $921 risked
Max Profit
+$2,079
If the stock ≤ $320 at expiry
Max Loss
−$921
Net debit
Break-even
$340.79
-2.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
21%
IV-implied, 49d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-27.63 / -4.05 / 19.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Nov 15 | Dec 1 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | +$1,944 | +$2,016 | +$2,066 | +$2,079 |
| $297 (-15%) | +$1,701 | +$1,830 | +$1,985 | +$2,079 |
| $305 (-13%) ← target | +$1,511 | +$1,650 | +$1,853 | +$2,079 |
| $314 (-10%) | +$1,258 | +$1,382 | +$1,595 | +$2,079 |
| $331 (-5%) | +$676 | +$706 | +$760 | +$933 |
| $342 (-2%) | +$319 | +$277 | +$190 | -$114 |
| $349 (0%) ← spot | +$96 | +$15 | -$143 | -$812 |
| $356 (+2%) | -$105 | -$215 | -$411 | -$921 |
| $366 (+5%) | -$359 | -$487 | -$682 | -$921 |
| $384 (+10%) | -$651 | -$757 | -$873 | -$921 |
| $401 (+15%) | -$807 | -$870 | -$914 | -$921 |
| $419 (+20%) | -$878 | -$908 | -$920 | -$921 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.