Target Price Playground
AAPL
$348.91
🟢
AAPL IV: 27.1% — LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 40.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
49d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $350 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $13.25 · Δ 0.57
SHORT CALL · $375 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.95 · Δ 0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $390 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,570 (168.8%) on $930 risked, vs +$4,109 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $34,891. Options give 14.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (49 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $390 by Dec 18
+$1,570
+168.8% on $930 risked
Max Profit
+$1,570
If the stock ≥ $375 at expiry
Max Loss
−$930
Net debit
Break-even
$359.30
+2.98% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 49d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
32.74 / -3.65 / 13.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Nov 15 | Dec 1 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | -$917 | -$928 | -$930 | -$930 |
| $297 (-15%) | -$869 | -$908 | -$929 | -$930 |
| $314 (-10%) | -$730 | -$818 | -$904 | -$930 |
| $331 (-5%) | -$452 | -$567 | -$742 | -$930 |
| $342 (-2%) | -$218 | -$315 | -$493 | -$930 |
| $349 (0%) ← spot | -$40 | -$112 | -$252 | -$930 |
| $356 (+2%) | +$146 | +$110 | +$35 | -$341 |
| $366 (+5%) | +$428 | +$451 | +$496 | +$706 |
| $384 (+10%) | +$853 | +$950 | +$1,126 | +$1,570 |
| $390 (+12%) ← target | +$979 | +$1,089 | +$1,273 | +$1,570 |
| $401 (+15%) | +$1,169 | +$1,283 | +$1,441 | +$1,570 |
| $419 (+20%) | +$1,366 | +$1,455 | +$1,541 | +$1,570 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.