Target Price Playground
AAPL
$348.91
🟢
AAPL IV: 27.1% — LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 40.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $330 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
49d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $350 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $14.98 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $330 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.9 · Δ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $330 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,295 (142.6%) on $908 risked, vs $-1,891 (-5.4%) for 100 shares on $34,891. Options give 26.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (49 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $330. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $330 by Dec 18
+$1,295
+142.6% on $908 risked
Max Profit
+$1,250
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$908
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$351.23
+0.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 49d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-19.56 / 1.46 / 21.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Nov 15 | Dec 1 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | +$958 | +$975 | +$977 | +$972 |
| $297 (-15%) | +$909 | +$961 | +$999 | +$985 |
| $314 (-10%) | +$765 | +$852 | +$970 | +$1,063 |
| $330 (-5%) ← target | +$530 | +$610 | +$744 | +$1,314 |
| $342 (-2%) | +$305 | +$351 | +$423 | +$507 |
| $349 (0%) ← spot | +$164 | +$184 | +$205 | +$132 |
| $356 (+2%) | +$23 | +$16 | -$12 | -$168 |
| $366 (+5%) | -$179 | -$221 | -$301 | -$493 |
| $384 (+10%) | -$463 | -$532 | -$635 | -$775 |
| $401 (+15%) | -$661 | -$726 | -$802 | -$874 |
| $419 (+20%) | -$782 | -$829 | -$872 | -$901 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.