Target Price Playground
AAPL
$348.91
🟢
AAPL IV: 27.1% — LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 40.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $305 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
49d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $350 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $12.73 · Δ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $305 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$3,227 (253.5%) on $1,273 risked, vs $-4,391 (-12.6%) for 100 shares on $34,891. Options give 20.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (49 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $305. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $305 by Dec 18
+$3,227
+253.5% on $1,273 risked
Max Profit
+$33,727
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$1,273
Premium paid
Break-even
$337.27
-3.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
21%
IV-implied, 49d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-44.36 / -13.22 / 51.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Nov 15 | Dec 1 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | +$5,618 | +$5,674 | +$5,741 | +$5,814 |
| $297 (-15%) | +$3,933 | +$3,951 | +$3,998 | +$4,070 |
| $305 (-13%) ← target | +$3,157 | +$3,142 | +$3,160 | +$3,227 |
| $314 (-10%) | +$2,373 | +$2,311 | +$2,278 | +$2,325 |
| $331 (-5%) | +$1,052 | +$894 | +$710 | +$581 |
| $342 (-2%) | +$414 | +$215 | -$46 | -$466 |
| $349 (0%) ← spot | +$59 | -$154 | -$439 | -$1,164 |
| $356 (+2%) | -$241 | -$455 | -$738 | -$1,273 |
| $366 (+5%) | -$593 | -$789 | -$1,028 | -$1,273 |
| $384 (+10%) | -$963 | -$1,098 | -$1,224 | -$1,273 |
| $401 (+15%) | -$1,147 | -$1,220 | -$1,266 | -$1,273 |
| $419 (+20%) | -$1,227 | -$1,260 | -$1,272 | -$1,273 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.