Target Price Playground
AAPL
$348.91
🟢
AAPL IV: 27.1% — LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 40.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
49d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $350 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $13.25 · Δ 0.57
LONG PUT · $350 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $12.73 · Δ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $400 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$2,402 (92.5%) on $2,598 risked, vs +$5,109 (14.6%) for 100 shares on $34,891. Options give 6.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (49 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $400 by Dec 18
+$2,402
+92.5% on $2,598 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$2,598
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$324.02
-7.13% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
14%
IV-implied, 49d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
12.47 / -26.45 / 101.9
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Nov 15 | Dec 1 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | +$4,307 | +$4,352 | +$4,416 | +$4,489 |
| $297 (-15%) | +$2,681 | +$2,650 | +$2,675 | +$2,745 |
| $314 (-10%) | +$1,306 | +$1,115 | +$980 | +$1,000 |
| $331 (-5%) | +$409 | +$24 | -$412 | -$744 |
| $342 (-2%) | +$180 | -$288 | -$878 | -$1,791 |
| $349 (0%) ← spot | +$167 | -$327 | -$966 | -$2,489 |
| $356 (+2%) | +$266 | -$231 | -$866 | -$2,009 |
| $366 (+5%) | +$610 | +$149 | -$399 | -$962 |
| $384 (+10%) | +$1,613 | +$1,274 | +$953 | +$782 |
| $400 (+15%) ← target | +$2,883 | +$2,660 | +$2,491 | +$2,402 |
| $419 (+20%) | +$4,574 | +$4,440 | +$4,346 | +$4,271 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.