Target Price Playground
AAPL
$337.02
๐ข
AAPL IV: 25.8% โ LOW
(-38.8% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $295 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
57d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $335 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.12 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $310 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.32 ยท ฮ -0.2
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $295 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$1,720 (220.5%) on $780 risked, vs $-4,202 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $33,702. Options give 17.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (57 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $295. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $295 by Nov 20
+$1,720
+220.5% on $780 risked
Max Profit
+$1,720
If the stock โค $310 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$780
Net debit
Break-even
$327.20
-2.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 57d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-24.63 / -2.12 / 19.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 13 | Nov 1 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | +$1,577 | +$1,651 | +$1,707 | +$1,720 |
| $286 (-15%) | +$1,354 | +$1,473 | +$1,626 | +$1,720 |
| $295 (-12%) โ target | +$1,182 | +$1,304 | +$1,496 | +$1,720 |
| $303 (-10%) | +$981 | +$1,085 | +$1,274 | +$1,720 |
| $320 (-5%) | +$512 | +$531 | +$567 | +$703 |
| $330 (-2%) | +$230 | +$190 | +$101 | -$308 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | +$55 | -$18 | -$166 | -$780 |
| $344 (+2%) | -$104 | -$200 | -$379 | -$780 |
| $354 (+5%) | -$305 | -$416 | -$592 | -$780 |
| $371 (+10%) | -$541 | -$636 | -$741 | -$780 |
| $388 (+15%) | -$673 | -$733 | -$774 | -$780 |
| $404 (+20%) | -$737 | -$767 | -$779 | -$780 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.