Target Price Playground
AAPL
$337.02
๐ข
AAPL IV: 25.8% โ LOW
(-38.8% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $375 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
57d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $335 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.89 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $365 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.51 ยท ฮ 0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $375 by Nov 20: the bull call spread returns +$1,862 (163.6%) on $1,138 risked, vs +$3,798 (11.3%) for 100 shares on $33,702. Options give 14.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (57 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $375. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $375 by Nov 20
+$1,862
+163.6% on $1,138 risked
Max Profit
+$1,862
If the stock โฅ $365 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,138
Net debit
Break-even
$346.38
+2.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
29%
IV-implied, 57d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
32.41 / -4.11 / 13.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 13 | Nov 1 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | -$1,113 | -$1,132 | -$1,138 | -$1,138 |
| $286 (-15%) | -$1,037 | -$1,098 | -$1,134 | -$1,138 |
| $303 (-10%) | -$850 | -$967 | -$1,092 | -$1,138 |
| $320 (-5%) | -$510 | -$647 | -$867 | -$1,138 |
| $330 (-2%) | -$237 | -$349 | -$559 | -$1,138 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | -$36 | -$116 | -$277 | -$936 |
| $344 (+2%) | +$174 | +$135 | +$51 | -$262 |
| $354 (+5%) | +$490 | +$517 | +$570 | +$749 |
| $371 (+10%) | +$968 | +$1,081 | +$1,290 | +$1,862 |
| $375 (+11%) โ target | +$1,073 | +$1,199 | +$1,420 | +$1,862 |
| $388 (+15%) | +$1,334 | +$1,473 | +$1,677 | +$1,862 |
| $404 (+20%) | +$1,575 | +$1,691 | +$1,814 | +$1,862 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.