Target Price Playground
AAPL
$337.02
๐ข
AAPL IV: 25.8% โ LOW
(-38.8% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $365 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
57d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $337.02 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $365 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.51 ยท ฮ 0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $365 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$3,249 (9.8%) on $33,251 risked, vs +$2,798 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $33,702. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (57 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $365 by Nov 20
+$3,249
+9.8% on $33,251 risked
Max Profit
+$3,249
If the stock โฅ $365 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$33,251
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$332.51
-1.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 57d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
76.08 / 9.75 / -38.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 13 | Nov 1 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | -$6,292 | -$6,289 | -$6,289 | -$6,289 |
| $286 (-15%) | -$4,620 | -$4,607 | -$4,604 | -$4,604 |
| $303 (-10%) | -$2,986 | -$2,938 | -$2,920 | -$2,919 |
| $320 (-5%) | -$1,448 | -$1,328 | -$1,247 | -$1,234 |
| $330 (-2%) | -$606 | -$427 | -$273 | -$223 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | -$89 | +$130 | +$346 | +$451 |
| $344 (+2%) | +$387 | +$642 | +$924 | +$1,125 |
| $354 (+5%) | +$1,015 | +$1,315 | +$1,680 | +$2,136 |
| $365 (+8%) โ target | +$1,583 | +$1,907 | +$2,317 | +$3,249 |
| $371 (+10%) | +$1,825 | +$2,150 | +$2,559 | +$3,249 |
| $388 (+15%) | +$2,360 | +$2,652 | +$2,980 | +$3,249 |
| $404 (+20%) | +$2,678 | +$2,908 | +$3,122 | +$3,249 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.