Target Price Playground
AAPL
$337.02
๐ข
AAPL IV: 25.8% โ LOW
(-38.8% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $320 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
57d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $335 ยท Dec '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.11 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $320 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.67 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $320 by Nov 20: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,019 (137.0%) on $744 risked, vs $-1,702 (-5.1%) for 100 shares on $33,702. Options give 26.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (57 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $320. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $320 by Nov 20
+$1,019
+137.0% on $744 risked
Max Profit
+$1,000
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$744
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$337.93
+0.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 57d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.78 / 1.38 / 19.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 13 | Nov 1 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | +$640 | +$653 | +$650 | +$642 |
| $286 (-15%) | +$612 | +$654 | +$683 | +$657 |
| $303 (-10%) | +$515 | +$589 | +$691 | +$750 |
| $320 (-5%) โ target | +$335 | +$404 | +$525 | +$1,069 |
| $330 (-2%) | +$192 | +$236 | +$312 | +$427 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | +$90 | +$114 | +$146 | +$98 |
| $344 (+2%) | -$13 | -$11 | -$23 | -$160 |
| $354 (+5%) | -$162 | -$190 | -$254 | -$430 |
| $371 (+10%) | -$377 | -$433 | -$524 | -$651 |
| $388 (+15%) | -$533 | -$590 | -$660 | -$722 |
| $404 (+20%) | -$632 | -$675 | -$716 | -$740 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.