Target Price Playground
AAPL
$337.02
๐ข
AAPL IV: 25.8% โ LOW
(-38.8% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $295 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
57d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $335 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.12 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $295 by Nov 20: the long put returns +$2,788 (230.0%) on $1,212 risked, vs $-4,202 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $33,702. Options give 18.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (57 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $295. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $295 by Nov 20
+$2,788
+230.0% on $1,212 risked
Max Profit
+$32,288
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,212
Premium paid
Break-even
$322.88
-4.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 57d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.21 / -10.63 / 52.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 13 | Nov 1 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | +$5,119 | +$5,175 | +$5,248 | +$5,326 |
| $286 (-15%) | +$3,523 | +$3,527 | +$3,566 | +$3,641 |
| $295 (-12%) โ target | +$2,765 | +$2,727 | +$2,724 | +$2,788 |
| $303 (-10%) | +$2,076 | +$1,990 | +$1,924 | +$1,956 |
| $320 (-5%) | +$879 | +$700 | +$477 | +$271 |
| $330 (-2%) | +$309 | +$96 | -$190 | -$740 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | -$6 | -$227 | -$526 | -$1,212 |
| $344 (+2%) | -$272 | -$489 | -$777 | -$1,212 |
| $354 (+5%) | -$584 | -$780 | -$1,014 | -$1,212 |
| $371 (+10%) | -$916 | -$1,051 | -$1,172 | -$1,212 |
| $388 (+15%) | -$1,086 | -$1,161 | -$1,206 | -$1,212 |
| $404 (+20%) | -$1,163 | -$1,198 | -$1,211 | -$1,212 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.