Target Price Playground
AAPL
$337.02
๐ข
AAPL IV: 25.8% โ LOW
(-38.8% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $375 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
57d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $337.02 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $375 by Nov 20: the long stock returns +$3,798 (11.3%) on $33,702 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Nov 20.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $375 by Nov 20
+$3,798
+11.3% on $33,702 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$33,702
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$337.02
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
29%
IV-implied, 57d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 24 | Nov 23 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | -$6,740 | -$6,740 | -$6,740 |
| $286 (-15%) | -$5,055 | -$5,055 | -$5,055 |
| $303 (-10%) | -$3,370 | -$3,370 | -$3,370 |
| $320 (-5%) | -$1,685 | -$1,685 | -$1,685 |
| $330 (-2%) | -$674 | -$674 | -$674 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $344 (+2%) | +$674 | +$674 | +$674 |
| $354 (+5%) | +$1,685 | +$1,685 | +$1,685 |
| $371 (+10%) | +$3,370 | +$3,370 | +$3,370 |
| $375 (+11%) โ target | +$3,798 | +$3,798 | +$3,798 |
| $388 (+15%) | +$5,055 | +$5,055 | +$5,055 |
| $404 (+20%) | +$6,740 | +$6,740 | +$6,740 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.