Target Price Playground
AAPL
$337.02
๐ข
AAPL IV: 25.8% โ LOW
(-38.8% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
57d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $335 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.89 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $335 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.12 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $390 by Nov 20: the long straddle returns +$2,699 (96.4%) on $2,801 risked, vs +$5,298 (15.7%) for 100 shares on $33,702. Options give 6.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (57 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $390 by Nov 20
+$2,699
+96.4% on $2,801 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,801
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$363.01
+7.71% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
14%
IV-implied, 57d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.12 / -24.49 / 105.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 13 | Nov 1 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $270 (-20%) | +$3,558 | +$3,592 | +$3,659 | +$3,737 |
| $286 (-15%) | +$2,050 | +$1,980 | +$1,981 | +$2,052 |
| $303 (-10%) | +$842 | +$591 | +$382 | +$367 |
| $320 (-5%) | +$132 | -$304 | -$828 | -$1,318 |
| $330 (-2%) | +$4 | -$499 | -$1,151 | -$2,329 |
| $337 (0%) โ spot | +$47 | -$472 | -$1,150 | -$2,599 |
| $344 (+2%) | +$190 | -$323 | -$976 | -$1,925 |
| $354 (+5%) | +$577 | +$107 | -$440 | -$914 |
| $371 (+10%) | +$1,597 | +$1,250 | +$929 | +$771 |
| $390 (+16%) โ target | +$3,156 | +$2,942 | +$2,786 | +$2,699 |
| $404 (+20%) | +$4,474 | +$4,326 | +$4,220 | +$4,141 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.