Target Price Playground
ADSK
$249.61
🟢
ADSK IV: 43.0% — LOW
(-54.6% vs 30d avg of 94.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $220 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.4 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $230 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.9 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $220 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,150 (135.3%) on $850 risked, vs $-2,961 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $24,961. Options give 11.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $220 by Dec 18
+$1,150
+135.3% on $850 risked
Max Profit
+$1,150
If the stock ≤ $230 at expiry
Max Loss
−$850
Net debit
Break-even
$241.50
-3.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-16.8 / -1.92 / 6.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | +$898 | +$983 | +$1,093 | +$1,150 |
| $212 (-15%) | +$716 | +$804 | +$954 | +$1,150 |
| $220 (-12%) ← target | +$577 | +$650 | +$793 | +$1,150 |
| $225 (-10%) | +$487 | +$546 | +$669 | +$1,150 |
| $237 (-5%) | +$235 | +$244 | +$264 | +$437 |
| $245 (-2%) | +$84 | +$59 | +$8 | -$312 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | -$13 | -$59 | -$152 | -$811 |
| $255 (+2%) | -$106 | -$170 | -$298 | -$850 |
| $262 (+5%) | -$236 | -$320 | -$480 | -$850 |
| $275 (+10%) | -$420 | -$521 | -$682 | -$850 |
| $287 (+15%) | -$561 | -$659 | -$785 | -$850 |
| $300 (+20%) | -$664 | -$746 | -$828 | -$850 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.