Target Price Playground
ADSK
$249.61
🟢
ADSK IV: 43.0% — LOW
(-54.6% vs 30d avg of 94.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.03 · Δ 0.55
SHORT CALL · $270 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $10.15 · Δ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $280 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,312 (190.7%) on $688 risked, vs +$3,039 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $24,961. Options give 15.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $280 by Dec 18
+$1,312
+190.7% on $688 risked
Max Profit
+$1,312
If the stock ≥ $270 at expiry
Max Loss
−$688
Net debit
Break-even
$256.88
+2.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
16.89 / -1.24 / 2.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | -$593 | -$644 | -$683 | -$688 |
| $212 (-15%) | -$493 | -$569 | -$656 | -$688 |
| $225 (-10%) | -$343 | -$430 | -$567 | -$688 |
| $237 (-5%) | -$148 | -$220 | -$364 | -$688 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$15 | -$67 | -$179 | -$688 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | +$77 | +$44 | -$35 | -$688 |
| $255 (+2%) | +$171 | +$157 | +$120 | -$228 |
| $262 (+5%) | +$312 | +$329 | +$359 | +$521 |
| $275 (+10%) | +$535 | +$599 | +$725 | +$1,312 |
| $280 (+12%) ← target | +$625 | +$705 | +$857 | +$1,312 |
| $287 (+15%) | +$732 | +$827 | +$997 | +$1,312 |
| $300 (+20%) | +$895 | +$1,001 | +$1,163 | +$1,312 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.