Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
ADSK
$249.61
🟢
ADSK IV: 43.0% — LOW (-54.6% vs 30d avg of 94.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $260 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $230 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.9 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry Now $250 Target $260 $175 $250 $324
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If ADSK hits $260 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$890 (4.0%) on $-890 credit (max loss $22,110), vs +$1,039 (4.2%) for 100 shares on $24,961. Options give 1.0× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $260. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if ADSK hits $260 by Dec 18
+$890
+4.0% on $22,110 max loss
Max Profit
+$890
If the stock ≥ $230 at expiry
Max Loss
−$22,110
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$221.10
-11.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
28.63 / 15.81 / -29.9
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

ADSK Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$200 (-20%) -$2,390 -$2,266 -$2,154 -$2,141
$212 (-15%) -$1,498 -$1,305 -$1,075 -$893
$225 (-10%) -$774 -$535 -$220 +$355
$237 (-5%) -$219 +$27 +$351 +$890
$245 (-2%) +$38 +$273 +$566 +$890
$250 (0%) ← spot +$181 +$403 +$667 +$890
$255 (+2%) +$304 +$510 +$740 +$890
$260 (+4%) ← target +$417 +$603 +$795 +$890
$275 (+10%) +$633 +$763 +$866 +$890
$287 (+15%) +$743 +$830 +$884 +$890
$300 (+20%) +$808 +$864 +$888 +$890
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.