Target Price Playground
ADSK
$249.61
🟢
ADSK IV: 43.0% — LOW
(-54.6% vs 30d avg of 94.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $249.61 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $270 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $10.15 · Δ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $270 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$3,054 (12.8%) on $23,946 risked, vs +$2,039 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $24,961. Options give 1.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $270 by Dec 18
+$3,054
+12.8% on $23,946 risked
Max Profit
+$3,054
If the stock ≥ $270 at expiry
Max Loss
−$23,946
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$239.46
-4.07% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
62.0 / 18.7 / -33.17
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | -$4,026 | -$3,989 | -$3,977 | -$3,977 |
| $212 (-15%) | -$2,852 | -$2,774 | -$2,733 | -$2,729 |
| $225 (-10%) | -$1,750 | -$1,608 | -$1,503 | -$1,481 |
| $237 (-5%) | -$748 | -$533 | -$324 | -$233 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$207 | +$51 | +$332 | +$516 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | +$126 | +$409 | +$737 | +$1,015 |
| $255 (+2%) | +$436 | +$741 | +$1,110 | +$1,514 |
| $262 (+5%) | +$857 | +$1,186 | +$1,602 | +$2,263 |
| $270 (+8%) ← target | +$1,244 | +$1,587 | +$2,026 | +$3,054 |
| $275 (+10%) | +$1,442 | +$1,786 | +$2,226 | +$3,054 |
| $287 (+15%) | +$1,891 | +$2,220 | +$2,618 | +$3,054 |
| $300 (+20%) | +$2,222 | +$2,514 | +$2,832 | +$3,054 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.