Target Price Playground
ADSK
$249.61
🟢
ADSK IV: 43.0% — LOW
(-54.6% vs 30d avg of 94.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $235 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $250 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $20.5 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $235 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.81 · Δ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $235 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$888 (75.9%) on $1,169 risked, vs $-1,461 (-5.9%) for 100 shares on $24,961. Options give 12.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $235. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $235 by Dec 18
+$888
+75.9% on $1,169 risked
Max Profit
+$875
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$1,145
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$251.06
+0.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-13.51 / 1.12 / 13.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | +$265 | +$304 | +$328 | +$284 |
| $212 (-15%) | +$224 | +$291 | +$372 | +$372 |
| $225 (-10%) | +$142 | +$222 | +$353 | +$570 |
| $235 (-6%) ← target | +$42 | +$117 | +$250 | +$857 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$72 | -$16 | +$83 | +$282 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | -$137 | -$94 | -$23 | +$31 |
| $255 (+2%) | -$205 | -$176 | -$137 | -$187 |
| $262 (+5%) | -$308 | -$303 | -$311 | -$458 |
| $275 (+10%) | -$477 | -$509 | -$580 | -$775 |
| $287 (+15%) | -$633 | -$689 | -$791 | -$965 |
| $300 (+20%) | -$766 | -$835 | -$940 | -$1,070 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.