Target Price Playground
ADSK
$249.61
🟢
ADSK IV: 43.0% — LOW
(-54.6% vs 30d avg of 94.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.03 · Δ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $280 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$1,297 (76.2%) on $1,703 risked, vs +$3,039 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $24,961. Options give 6.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $280 by Dec 18
+$1,297
+76.2% on $1,703 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$1,703
Premium paid
Break-even
$267.03
+6.98% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
54.89 / -19.94 / 36.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | -$1,559 | -$1,646 | -$1,697 | -$1,703 |
| $212 (-15%) | -$1,384 | -$1,539 | -$1,668 | -$1,703 |
| $225 (-10%) | -$1,089 | -$1,318 | -$1,560 | -$1,703 |
| $237 (-5%) | -$648 | -$935 | -$1,287 | -$1,703 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$307 | -$616 | -$1,010 | -$1,703 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | -$49 | -$365 | -$772 | -$1,703 |
| $255 (+2%) | +$234 | -$84 | -$491 | -$1,243 |
| $262 (+5%) | +$703 | +$391 | +$5 | -$494 |
| $275 (+10%) | +$1,589 | +$1,309 | +$995 | +$754 |
| $280 (+12%) ← target | +$2,011 | +$1,750 | +$1,473 | +$1,297 |
| $287 (+15%) | +$2,585 | +$2,351 | +$2,123 | +$2,002 |
| $300 (+20%) | +$3,665 | +$3,479 | +$3,323 | +$3,250 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.