Target Price Playground
ADSK
$249.61
🟢
ADSK IV: 43.0% — LOW
(-54.6% vs 30d avg of 94.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $220 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.4 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $220 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$1,260 (72.4%) on $1,740 risked, vs $-2,961 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $24,961. Options give 6.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $220 by Dec 18
+$1,260
+72.4% on $1,740 risked
Max Profit
+$23,260
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$1,740
Premium paid
Break-even
$232.60
-6.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-45.43 / -17.73 / 36.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | +$3,288 | +$3,249 | +$3,247 | +$3,291 |
| $212 (-15%) | +$2,214 | +$2,108 | +$2,029 | +$2,043 |
| $220 (-12%) ← target | +$1,600 | +$1,448 | +$1,299 | +$1,260 |
| $225 (-10%) | +$1,261 | +$1,082 | +$889 | +$795 |
| $237 (-5%) | +$455 | +$216 | -$87 | -$453 |
| $245 (-2%) | +$46 | -$214 | -$558 | -$1,202 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | -$194 | -$462 | -$819 | -$1,701 |
| $255 (+2%) | -$410 | -$680 | -$1,037 | -$1,740 |
| $262 (+5%) | -$691 | -$953 | -$1,290 | -$1,740 |
| $275 (+10%) | -$1,052 | -$1,283 | -$1,548 | -$1,740 |
| $287 (+15%) | -$1,304 | -$1,489 | -$1,668 | -$1,740 |
| $300 (+20%) | -$1,472 | -$1,610 | -$1,716 | -$1,740 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.