Target Price Playground
ADSK
$249.61
๐ข
ADSK IV: 43.0% โ LOW
(-54.6% vs 30d avg of 94.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $249.61 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $280 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$3,039 (12.2%) on $24,961 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $280 by Dec 18
+$3,039
+12.2% on $24,961 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$24,961
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$249.61
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | Nov 30 | Dec 30 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | -$4,992 | -$4,992 | -$4,992 |
| $212 (-15%) | -$3,744 | -$3,744 | -$3,744 |
| $225 (-10%) | -$2,496 | -$2,496 | -$2,496 |
| $237 (-5%) | -$1,248 | -$1,248 | -$1,248 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$499 | -$499 | -$499 |
| $250 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $255 (+2%) | +$499 | +$499 | +$499 |
| $262 (+5%) | +$1,248 | +$1,248 | +$1,248 |
| $275 (+10%) | +$2,496 | +$2,496 | +$2,496 |
| $280 (+12%) โ target | +$3,039 | +$3,039 | +$3,039 |
| $287 (+15%) | +$3,744 | +$3,744 | +$3,744 |
| $300 (+20%) | +$4,992 | +$4,992 | +$4,992 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.