Target Price Playground
ADSK
$249.61
🟢
ADSK IV: 43.0% — LOW
(-54.6% vs 30d avg of 94.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $285 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.03 · Δ 0.55
LONG PUT · $250 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.4 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $285 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$57 (1.7%) on $3,443 risked, vs +$3,539 (14.2%) for 100 shares on $24,961. Options give 0.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $285. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $285 by Dec 18
+$57
+1.7% on $3,443 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$3,443
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$215.57
-13.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
9.46 / -37.66 / 72.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 (-20%) | +$1,729 | +$1,603 | +$1,550 | +$1,588 |
| $212 (-15%) | +$830 | +$569 | +$361 | +$340 |
| $225 (-10%) | +$172 | -$236 | -$672 | -$908 |
| $237 (-5%) | -$193 | -$719 | -$1,374 | -$2,156 |
| $245 (-2%) | -$261 | -$830 | -$1,568 | -$2,905 |
| $250 (0%) ← spot | -$243 | -$827 | -$1,591 | -$3,404 |
| $255 (+2%) | -$176 | -$764 | -$1,529 | -$2,983 |
| $262 (+5%) | +$12 | -$562 | -$1,286 | -$2,234 |
| $275 (+10%) | +$537 | +$26 | -$553 | -$986 |
| $285 (+14%) ← target | +$1,146 | +$711 | +$277 | +$57 |
| $300 (+20%) | +$2,193 | +$1,869 | +$1,607 | +$1,510 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.