Target Price Playground
AEP
$130.21
🟢
AEP IV: 19.0% — LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 28.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $130 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.54 · Δ -0.47
SHORT PUT · $120 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.9 · Δ -0.16
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AEP hits $115 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$736 (278.8%) on $264 risked, vs $-1,521 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $13,021. Options give 23.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AEP is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AEP hits $115 by Dec 18
+$736
+278.8% on $264 risked
Max Profit
+$736
If the stock ≤ $120 at expiry
Max Loss
−$264
Net debit
Break-even
$127.36
-2.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
13%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-31.19 / -1.26 / 6.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AEP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | +$717 | +$728 | +$734 | +$736 |
| $111 (-15%) | +$659 | +$694 | +$726 | +$736 |
| $115 (-12%) ← target | +$570 | +$618 | +$683 | +$736 |
| $117 (-10%) | +$507 | +$555 | +$629 | +$736 |
| $124 (-5%) | +$269 | +$283 | +$307 | +$366 |
| $128 (-2%) | +$118 | +$102 | +$68 | -$25 |
| $130 (0%) ← spot | +$28 | -$3 | -$61 | -$264 |
| $133 (+2%) | -$50 | -$89 | -$154 | -$264 |
| $137 (+5%) | -$139 | -$178 | -$229 | -$264 |
| $143 (+10%) | -$222 | -$244 | -$261 | -$264 |
| $150 (+15%) | -$253 | -$261 | -$264 | -$264 |
| $156 (+20%) | -$261 | -$264 | -$264 | -$264 |
Uses AEP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.