Target Price Playground
AEP
$130.21
🟢
AEP IV: 19.0% — LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 28.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $130.21 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $140 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.0 · Δ 0.16
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AEP hits $140 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$1,079 (8.4%) on $12,921 risked, vs +$979 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $13,021. Options give 1.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AEP is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AEP hits $140 by Dec 18
+$1,079
+8.4% on $12,921 risked
Max Profit
+$1,079
If the stock ≥ $140 at expiry
Max Loss
−$12,921
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$129.21
-0.77% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
84.14 / 2.29 / -13.1
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AEP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | -$2,504 | -$2,504 | -$2,504 | -$2,504 |
| $111 (-15%) | -$1,853 | -$1,853 | -$1,853 | -$1,853 |
| $117 (-10%) | -$1,207 | -$1,203 | -$1,202 | -$1,202 |
| $124 (-5%) | -$579 | -$560 | -$552 | -$551 |
| $128 (-2%) | -$228 | -$191 | -$165 | -$160 |
| $130 (0%) ← spot | -$13 | +$40 | +$85 | +$100 |
| $133 (+2%) | +$183 | +$251 | +$321 | +$360 |
| $137 (+5%) | +$436 | +$522 | +$626 | +$751 |
| $140 (+8%) ← target | +$605 | +$698 | +$815 | +$1,079 |
| $143 (+10%) | +$733 | +$825 | +$936 | +$1,079 |
| $150 (+15%) | +$893 | +$964 | +$1,034 | +$1,079 |
| $156 (+20%) | +$962 | +$1,010 | +$1,050 | +$1,079 |
Uses AEP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.