Target Price Playground
AEP
$130.21
🟢
AEP IV: 19.0% — LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 28.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $130 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $4.14 · Δ -0.47
SHORT PUT · $125 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.8 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AEP hits $125 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$342 (146.3%) on $234 risked, vs $-521 (-4.0%) for 100 shares on $13,021. Options give 36.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AEP is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AEP hits $125 by Dec 18
+$342
+146.3% on $234 risked
Max Profit
+$325
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$234
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$131.02
+0.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-17.75 / 0.51 / 7.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AEP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | +$221 | +$221 | +$221 | +$221 |
| $111 (-15%) | +$222 | +$226 | +$226 | +$222 |
| $117 (-10%) | +$203 | +$222 | +$240 | +$235 |
| $125 (-4%) ← target | +$122 | +$145 | +$185 | +$347 |
| $128 (-2%) | +$81 | +$98 | +$126 | +$177 |
| $130 (0%) ← spot | +$36 | +$44 | +$55 | +$41 |
| $133 (+2%) | -$9 | -$10 | -$18 | -$60 |
| $137 (+5%) | -$73 | -$86 | -$110 | -$156 |
| $143 (+10%) | -$155 | -$172 | -$195 | -$219 |
| $150 (+15%) | -$201 | -$213 | -$225 | -$232 |
| $156 (+20%) | -$222 | -$228 | -$232 | -$234 |
Uses AEP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.