Target Price Playground
AEP
$130.21
🟢
AEP IV: 19.0% — LOW
(-33.0% vs 30d avg of 28.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $130.21 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $125 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.8 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AEP hits $145 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$1,299 (9.8%) on $13,201 risked, vs +$1,479 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $13,021. Options give 0.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AEP is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AEP hits $145 by Dec 18
+$1,299
+9.8% on $13,201 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$701
Put floors you at $125
Break-even
$132.01
+1.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
14%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
70.71 / -3.72 / 16.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AEP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | -$771 | -$750 | -$726 | -$701 |
| $111 (-15%) | -$748 | -$741 | -$725 | -$701 |
| $117 (-10%) | -$653 | -$681 | -$706 | -$701 |
| $124 (-5%) | -$419 | -$476 | -$553 | -$701 |
| $128 (-2%) | -$195 | -$253 | -$329 | -$440 |
| $130 (0%) ← spot | -$15 | -$66 | -$128 | -$180 |
| $133 (+2%) | +$188 | +$145 | +$101 | +$80 |
| $137 (+5%) | +$524 | +$496 | +$475 | +$471 |
| $143 (+10%) | +$1,136 | +$1,126 | +$1,122 | +$1,122 |
| $145 (+11%) ← target | +$1,308 | +$1,301 | +$1,299 | +$1,299 |
| $150 (+15%) | +$1,776 | +$1,773 | +$1,773 | +$1,773 |
| $156 (+20%) | +$2,424 | +$2,424 | +$2,424 | +$2,424 |
Uses AEP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.