Target Price Playground
AMD
$504.20
๐ข
AMD IV: 53.5% โ LOW
(-25.2% vs 30d avg of 71.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $500 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $43.53 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $465 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $28.94 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $445 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$2,041 (139.8%) on $1,459 risked, vs $-5,920 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $50,420. Options give 11.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $445 by Nov 20
+$2,041
+139.8% on $1,459 risked
Max Profit
+$2,041
If the stock โค $465 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,459
Net debit
Break-even
$485.41
-3.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.75 / -2.58 / 8.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | +$1,291 | +$1,428 | +$1,686 | +$2,041 |
| $429 (-15%) | +$1,024 | +$1,129 | +$1,359 | +$2,041 |
| $445 (-12%) โ target | +$838 | +$911 | +$1,085 | +$2,041 |
| $454 (-10%) | +$736 | +$789 | +$923 | +$2,041 |
| $479 (-5%) | +$442 | +$433 | +$427 | +$642 |
| $494 (-2%) | +$268 | +$221 | +$129 | -$871 |
| $504 (0%) โ spot | +$155 | +$84 | -$62 | -$1,459 |
| $514 (+2%) | +$45 | -$48 | -$242 | -$1,459 |
| $529 (+5%) | -$113 | -$236 | -$489 | -$1,459 |
| $555 (+10%) | -$355 | -$516 | -$826 | -$1,459 |
| $580 (+15%) | -$567 | -$749 | -$1,069 | -$1,459 |
| $605 (+20%) | -$748 | -$937 | -$1,231 | -$1,459 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.