Target Price Playground
AMD
$504.20
๐ข
AMD IV: 53.5% โ LOW
(-25.2% vs 30d avg of 71.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $560 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $500 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $51.61 ยท ฮ 0.57
SHORT CALL ยท $540 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $34.75 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $560 by Nov 20: the bull call spread returns +$2,314 (137.2%) on $1,686 risked, vs +$5,580 (11.1%) for 100 shares on $50,420. Options give 12.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $560. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $560 by Nov 20
+$2,314
+137.2% on $1,686 risked
Max Profit
+$2,314
If the stock โฅ $540 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,686
Net debit
Break-even
$516.86
+2.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.86 / -0.75 / -4.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | -$1,161 | -$1,313 | -$1,543 | -$1,686 |
| $429 (-15%) | -$924 | -$1,075 | -$1,353 | -$1,686 |
| $454 (-10%) | -$650 | -$773 | -$1,042 | -$1,686 |
| $479 (-5%) | -$350 | -$424 | -$614 | -$1,686 |
| $494 (-2%) | -$163 | -$201 | -$315 | -$1,686 |
| $504 (0%) โ spot | -$38 | -$50 | -$105 | -$1,266 |
| $514 (+2%) | +$86 | +$102 | +$107 | -$258 |
| $529 (+5%) | +$271 | +$327 | +$425 | +$1,255 |
| $555 (+10%) | +$567 | +$685 | +$919 | +$2,314 |
| $560 (+11%) โ target | +$628 | +$757 | +$1,016 | +$2,314 |
| $580 (+15%) | +$842 | +$1,009 | +$1,338 | +$2,314 |
| $605 (+20%) | +$1,089 | +$1,291 | +$1,664 | +$2,314 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.