Target Price Playground
AMD
$504.20
๐ข
AMD IV: 53.5% โ LOW
(-25.2% vs 30d avg of 71.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $540 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $504.2 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $540 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $34.75 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $540 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$7,055 (15.0%) on $46,945 risked, vs +$3,580 (7.1%) for 100 shares on $50,420. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $540. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $540 by Nov 20
+$7,055
+15.0% on $46,945 risked
Max Profit
+$7,055
If the stock โฅ $540 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$46,945
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$469.45
-6.89% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.7 / 38.35 / -87.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | -$7,316 | -$6,945 | -$6,663 | -$6,609 |
| $429 (-15%) | -$5,258 | -$4,737 | -$4,251 | -$4,088 |
| $454 (-10%) | -$3,377 | -$2,703 | -$1,969 | -$1,567 |
| $479 (-5%) | -$1,689 | -$879 | +$105 | +$954 |
| $494 (-2%) | -$773 | +$104 | +$1,221 | +$2,467 |
| $504 (0%) โ spot | -$204 | +$711 | +$1,903 | +$3,475 |
| $514 (+2%) | +$333 | +$1,280 | +$2,533 | +$4,483 |
| $529 (+5%) | +$1,079 | +$2,061 | +$3,378 | +$5,996 |
| $540 (+7%) โ target | +$1,560 | +$2,557 | +$3,898 | +$7,055 |
| $555 (+10%) | +$2,169 | +$3,175 | +$4,523 | +$7,055 |
| $580 (+15%) | +$3,081 | +$4,072 | +$5,362 | +$7,055 |
| $605 (+20%) | +$3,832 | +$4,778 | +$5,946 | +$7,055 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.