Target Price Playground
AMD
$504.20
๐ข
AMD IV: 53.5% โ LOW
(-25.2% vs 30d avg of 71.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $480 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $500 ยท Dec '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $50.43 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $480 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $34.4 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $480 by Nov 20: the diagonal put spread returns +$2,351 (146.7%) on $1,603 risked, vs $-2,420 (-4.8%) for 100 shares on $50,420. Options give 30.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $480. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $480 by Nov 20
+$2,351
+146.7% on $1,603 risked
Max Profit
+$2,266
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,483
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$535.54
+6.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
85%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-6.07 / 4.32 / 17.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | +$505 | +$608 | +$721 | +$550 |
| $429 (-15%) | +$493 | +$636 | +$859 | +$932 |
| $454 (-10%) | +$443 | +$606 | +$907 | +$1,567 |
| $480 (-5%) โ target | +$349 | +$511 | +$827 | +$2,549 |
| $494 (-2%) | +$284 | +$434 | +$728 | +$1,809 |
| $504 (0%) โ spot | +$232 | +$370 | +$636 | +$1,342 |
| $514 (+2%) | +$176 | +$300 | +$531 | +$923 |
| $529 (+5%) | +$85 | +$184 | +$352 | +$383 |
| $555 (+10%) | -$77 | -$27 | +$23 | -$310 |
| $580 (+15%) | -$246 | -$246 | -$305 | -$788 |
| $605 (+20%) | -$414 | -$459 | -$604 | -$1,105 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.